Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 9.576112e-01 1.167045 1.390401 1.644329 1.923109 2.218121 2.552214
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 7.267086e-01 1.019881 1.355672 1.760281 2.226914 2.741461 3.345302
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 6.065952e-01 0.943419 1.348770 1.855725 2.457951 3.137768 3.951215
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 4.916569e-01 0.851973 1.307793 1.898345 2.618897 3.449081 4.458924
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.906506e-01 0.758473 1.247766 1.903219 2.722576 3.683666 4.869301
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 2.888799e-01 0.644982 1.147337 1.845367 2.740403 3.809553 5.147032
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.094585e-01 0.547820 1.056051 1.788446 2.750539 3.919270 5.399853
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.540742e-01 0.476172 0.990976 1.758216 2.787890 4.056935 5.681774
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.230353e-01 0.439970 0.973065 1.788485 2.900438 4.285420 6.072279
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 9.370846e-02 0.398948 0.942685 1.797619 2.982748 4.474648 6.414108
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 6.429688e-02 0.347181 0.888794 1.768447 3.010802 4.593349 6.667849
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.930114e-02 0.352516 0.929464 1.877507 3.225252 4.949089 7.215255
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 5.289564e-02 0.354949 0.969239 1.992551 3.458358 5.342019 7.826356
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.681395e-02 0.356751 1.008225 2.107954 3.694636 5.742692 8.452115
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.120713e-02 0.357687 1.044621 2.218782 3.924262 6.134678 9.067099
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.053801e-02 0.336786 1.039022 2.264199 4.063128 6.409914 9.537111
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.942371e-02 0.305227 1.009633 2.270231 4.145535 6.611055 9.913771
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.266042e-03 0.255824 0.938598 2.205927 4.125812 6.676874 10.118486
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.233181e-03 0.212266 0.871609 2.142873 4.104062 6.737261 10.314133
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.362770e-04 0.181148 0.825166 2.109282 4.121179 6.846012 10.568362
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.731755e-07 0.168536 0.819119 2.142899 4.235869 7.084798 10.989350
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 NaN 0.151749 0.800274 2.153031 4.315187 7.275854 11.349082
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 NaN 0.127854 0.758674 2.120651 4.329673 7.378525 11.594256